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Analysis Isaac Herzog

Published on March 11th, 2015 | by Mitchell Plitnick

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New Poll Offers False Hope in Israeli Elections

by Mitchell Plitnick

Many people in the United States are keeping a close eye on the Israeli elections, due to take place on March 17. The latest, and last, poll by the Knesset Channel in Israel came out yesterday, and it may open a lot of eyes.

The poll shows the Zionist Camp coalition—Isaac Herzog’s Labor Party and Tzipi Livni’s Hatnuah— garnering 24 seats, while Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party come in second at 21. The report in Ha’aretz analyzes those numbers even further to show that 56 elected Knesset members would likely recommend Herzog to form the next government, while Netanyahu would have the backing of 55.

As always, however, the devil is in the details. Assuming for the moment that the election turns out exactly as this poll predicts—which, given the nature of such polls, is not terribly likely—here is the breakdown of the 120 seats in the next Knesset:

Zionist Camp: 24
Likud: 21
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid’s centrist party): 14
Joint List (Hadash, a Jewish-Arab communist party, and Balad and Ta’al, the two Arab parties): 13
Jewish Home (Naftali Bennett’s far right party): 12
Kulanu (a new centrist party headed by Moshe Kahlon): 9
Shas (a religious party representing Jews of Middle Eastern descent): 7
Meretz (leftist Zionist party): 6
United Torah Judaism (a religious party of Jews of European descent): 6
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman’s right wing/Russian party): 5
Yachad/Ha’am Itanu (A far right party headed by Eli Yishai): 4
(Note: the numbers add up to 121 due to rounding)

A careful observer might notice a big problem for Herzog if the election comes out this way.

First of all, Herzog would have to get enough parties to recommend to the president of Israel that he be given the first opportunity to form a government. Ha’aretz seems quite certain that the Joint List would do so, but that is far from certain. Kulanu has already stated that they would not recommend any party. Without the Joint List, Herzog would have only 43 or 44 recommendations, and that won’t be enough.

But let’s say he does get past that hurdle. That Joint List question comes up again.

No Israeli governing coalition has ever included Arab parties. Herzog has given no indication that he is ready to break that precedent. Even if he were to do so, it’s at best a 50-50 chance that the Joint List would accept. His clear coalition partners are Yesh Atid and Meretz, so he needs to get the support of enough other parties to collect 17 more seats.

Without the Joint List, Herzog would need to bring in both religious parties and Kulanu. That might not be possible with Meretz and Yesh Atid in the coalition, both of whom are unlikely to be deemed acceptable to the religious parties (and the feeling is mutual). Even if the Joint List agreed to join with Zionist Camp, Yesh Atid might bolt as a result.

The road forward for Netanyahu is much cleaner. He could, potentially, get as many as 64 or 65 seats in a coalition of Likud, Jewish Home, Kulanu, Shas, UTJ, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Yachad. Even if one party objects to another potential coalition partner, Netanyahu could afford to lose one if things break right.

It’s important to note that this poll is the most optimistic one yet for those who hope to see Netanyahu defeated. It can be argued that, since this is the last poll from this particular source, it points to a trend that could continue for the next week and give a few more seats to a potential Zionist Camp coalition. The more likely indication, however, is that even if Herzog manages to best Netanyahu in total seats for his party, he will be unable to form a government.

It never hurts to be optimistic. But the wiser course is to prepare for Act IV of the Reign of Netanyahu.

Photo: Isaac Herzog

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About the Author

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Mitchell Plitnick is former vice president of the Foundation for Middle East Peace. He is the former director of the US Office of B’Tselem: The Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories, and was previously the director of education and policy for Jewish Voice for Peace. He is a widely published and respected policy analyst. Born in New York City, raised an Orthodox Jew and educated in Yeshiva, Mitchell grew up in an extremist environment that passionately supported the radical Israeli settler movement. His writing has appeared in the Jordan Times, Israel Insider, UN Observer, Middle East Report, Global Dialogue, San Francisco Chronicle, Die Blaetter Fuer Deutsche Und Internationale Politik, Outlook, and in a regular column for a time in Tikkun Magazine. He has been interviewed by various outlets including PBS News Hour, the O’Reilly Factor and CNBC Asia. Plitnick graduated with honors from UC Berkeley in Middle Eastern Studies and wrote his thesis on Israeli and Jewish historiography and earned his Masters Degree from the University of Maryland, College Park's School of Public Policy.



5 Responses to New Poll Offers False Hope in Israeli Elections

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  1. avatar ronmac says:

    In a best case scenario summation with fairy dust sprinkled on top-if I may be so bold to offer one-the devil you know is better than the one you don’t.

  2. avatar tms5510 says:

    Bibi hurts Israel more so I root for him

  3. avatar APOSTOLOS says:

    Lieberman. a candidate and a member of the Knessert , stated he is for killing every Arab in Palestine.

  4. avatar Norman says:

    So next week, we’ll know who’s going to lead Israel to where ever it goes, good or bad. I can’t understand how so few, can call the shots for so many. As we’ve seen to date, one never knows what tomorrow will bring. If Netanyahoo wins, Israel just might lose, along with the whole of the M.E., possibly beyond, way beyond.

  5. avatar RonHawk says:

    Every country goes through periods of extremism. Sane and normal countries eventually check themselves before sliding too far to one extreme and swing the other way. But one of the factors that helps a country check itself from going over the edge is understanding the cost/benefit of its actions. That’s where other countries come in to caution a nation against going too far, and in the case of Israel that’s a problem. There is way too much sycophancy and way too little criticism in this country toward Israel, as it’s displayed in every presidential election and as was evident in that sickening display of kissbuttery last week in Congress. Israel has been shifting too far to the right and nobody dares tell them the emperor has no clothes. I hope Tuesday will be the day Israel wakes herself up because she can’t count on her “friends” to do that for her. And I do hope the “Joint List” does something to prevent the nightmare scenario instead of staying on the sideline and vowing no action as usual.

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