Via Mondoweiss, Juan Cole’s excellent Informed Comment site is currently carrying an analysis by Middle East and terror expert Mahan Abedin that explores Iran’s likely options and fallout should the United States use bombers to attack the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Eli addressed this scenario last week using Patrick Disney’s analysis, and this latest attempt at gazing into the crystal ball is no less sobering.
Abedin writes:
A top priority for the IRGC high command is to respond so harshly and decisively so as to deter the Americans from a second set of strikes at a future point. The idea here is to avoid what happened to Iraq in the period , when the former Baathist regime was so weakened by sanctions and repeated small-scale military attacks that it quickly collapsed in the face of American and British invading armies.
The range of predictable responses available to the IRGC high command include dramatic hit ad run attacks against military and commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf, the use of mid-range ballistic missiles against American bases in the region and Israel and a direct assault on American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. All these options are likely to be used within 48 hours of the start of hostilities.
What is less predictable is the response of the IRGC Qods Force, which is likely to be at the forefront of the Pasdaran’s counter-attack. One possible response by the Qods force is spectacular terrorist-style attacks against American intelligence bases and assets throughout the region. The IRGC Qods Force is believed to have identified every key component of the American intelligence apparatus in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan. They are likely to put this information to good use, especially since the Qods Force suspects that the CIA had a hand in last October’s Jundullah-organised suicide bombing targeting IRGC commanders in Iran’s volatile Sistan va Baluchistan province.
The IRGC navy will also play a key asymmetrical role in the conflict by organising maritime suicide bombings on an industrial scale. By manning its fleet of speedboats with suicide bombers and ramming them into American warships and even neutral commercial shipping, the Pasdaran will hope to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 40 percent of world crude oil supplies pass.
The combination of these asymmetrical forms of warfare with more conventional style missile and even ground force attacks on American bases in the region will likely result in thousands of American military casualties in the space of a few weeks. The IRGC has both the will and wherewithal to inflict a level of casualties on American armed forces not seen since the Second World War.
Even if the United States manages to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and much of the country’s military assets, the IRGC can still claim victory by claiming to have given the Americans a bloody nose and producing an outcome not dissimilar from the Israeli-Hezbollah military engagement in the summer of 2006.
The political effect of this will likely be even more explosive than the actual fighting. Not only will it awaken the sleeping giant of Iranian nationalism, thus aligning the broad mass of the people with the regime, it will also shore up Iran’s image in the region and prove once and for all that the Islamic Republic is prepared to fight to the death to uphold its principles. Suddenly Iran’s allies in the region – particularly non-state actors like Hezbollah and Hamas – would stand ten feet tall.
A hundred pieces of heavy artillery, say 155 mm stuff, preplaced and sighted-in on the Straits, could close it. Such pieces can fire twenty rounds and scat. Good accuracy is what, perhaps plus-minus fifty meters? Good enough to get hits. Radar aimed counterbattery fire is deadly, but it takes three or four minutes to get on the way. Fake fire can confuse radar counterbattery, too. Many military surface vessels are too thin-skinned on top to resist penetration. Arty…the cheapest and most effective way to put fifty lb of boom on a target.
Basically, most of the big US naval assets wont dare run the gauntlet, the real losses and the political losses would be too much. So it will be an air war. The counter strikes on large assets will be in various ports, not open-sea.
Russia and China won’t like it. Upsets trade. Upsets their Muslim populations. Likely to cause huge problems in Egypt…adios, Hose-me. Etc.
Hmmm, tell me again how this will be in the US best interest?
JP Straley
I don’t disagree with part of your post, but I wonder how committed we will be. The fact is that we have no business over there. We don’t even import ME oil. It didn’t hurt Britain too much after they left their territories. In fact, it saved Britain.
Robert Fisk’s chapter in The Great War for Civilization on Iranian carpet weaving is instructive.
I think US planners know that it would be total folly, and hopefully this whole thing is a bluff. On the other hand, we can’t forget that our leaders are not necessarily clear-thinking, intelligent individuals, and it’s not them who would be risking the fallout from such an attack, so anything is possible. After all, it’s not their sons and daughters getting blown to bits in Iraq and Afghanistan. When planners themselves are this far disconnected from the realities on the ground, they are liable to order all kinds of absurd actions.
Strange dreams like this can very quickly become reality if we don’t combat the propaganda.
The time spent predicting war scenarios is the time not spent asking and answering the questions that can easily produce the knowledge (already learned) to stop all wars, regardless of attempted opposition that would therefore promptly defeat itself.
Enjoy the show of the human addiction to the former, and fear of the latter.
Respectfully, DougBuchanan.com
If push comes to shove and Iran is forced to retaliate by closing the Hormuz Straits then the United States will be forced to occupy the Iranian side of the Straits so as to open it and protect it.
How many Americans will die for this operation? It will require groundforces and it will require long-term defense.
This is beyond the ability of the United States so it will be forced to threaten a nuclear attack.
Let’s see what the “Bomber Boys” and Goldberg have to say to this situation.