Israeli Strike on Iran by Spring 2011?

Col. Pat Lang, a former intel officer who blogs at Sic Semper Tyrannis, has a guest post by someone named simply “Harper.” This Harper was recently in touch with an American source who visited Israel and met with senior officials there, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

There’s a lot of information packed into the post: French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s support for Netanyahu’s determination to attack Iran; the politics of the February 2011 change of Israel’s army Chief of Staff; Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’s plan to depart the U.S. administration before an attack; and Israel’s calculus of blowback from airstrikes and what to do about them — i.e. attack Southern Lebanon and Gaza just as planes take off for Iran.

But, after all that, the post ends with bang —  a discussion of the determination of Israel to attack Iran and the possible timeframe of such an assault.

Here’s Harper, on Lang’s blog:

When might such an operation be launched? My source believes that, if it does not happen before December 10, it will next be on the table for March or April 2011.

Netanyahu is considering, but has not finalized in his mind, to order strikes in late November 2010. All IDF vacations have been suspended as of this week; and IDF officers studying abroad have been summoned home temporarily. The line circulating around is: “No repeat of the Yom Kippur War when Israel was caught by surprise.” END”  Harper

Will we have an Israeli strike — without a U.S. greenlight — by this upcoming spring? Doubtful.

An Israeli friend informs me that his military-connected sources have heard nothing about an imminent strike and that a massive cancellation of leave never materialized. However, it does appears that some weekend leave was cancelled on the weekend when Iran did it’s own massive military exercises aimed at preparing for such an aerial attack.

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Ali Gharib

Ali Gharib is a New York-based journalist on U.S. foreign policy with a focus on the Middle East and Central Asia. His work has appeared at Inter Press Service, where he was the Deputy Washington Bureau Chief; the Buffalo Beast; Huffington Post; Mondoweiss; Right Web; and Alternet. He holds a Master's degree in Philosophy and Public Policy from the London School of Economics and Political Science. A proud Iranian-American and fluent Farsi speaker, Ali was born in California and raised in D.C.

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  1. Well, just browsing the web on the potential of an Israeli Iranian war this year, and I stumbled upon this blob post. Hmmm….seems very unlikely that Israel would strike this year and at all for that matter. The atmosphere seemed ripe for it the last several years, but it seems as if the political landscape has changed so much that Israel doesn’t seem to have the support from the West or the U.S. to carry out such a strike like it may have once had during the Bush years, and even the first year of Obama’s presidency. It also seems like there has been a drop in urgency as to the danger posed by Iran within Israel, that focus has shifted. I might be wrong, but if there was ever an opportunity for war between these two countries concerning the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, that opportunity passed last August, and most likely wont return again.

  2. i don’t think an israeli strike on iran will make any difference.
    it will only aggravate the situation and lead to a much more bitter consequense for all the parties involved.
    i think the best thing to do is for the UN to have an agreement with iran that even if they continue to develop their nuclear prowess, the will never as in never try to develop a nuclear weapon.

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