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Published on September 30th, 2010 | by Ali Gharib

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Israel estimates Iran will have the bomb in 2014

Buried deep in the New York Times article about the Stuxnet virus apparently infecting computers at Iranian nuclear facilities was a peek at Israel’s assessment of Iran’s alleged drive towards a nuclear weapon. In the piece, mentioned in today’s Talking Points, John Markoff and David Sanger wrote:

Yossi Melman, who covers intelligence for the newspaper Haaretz and is at work on a book about Israeli intelligence over the past decade, said in a telephone interview that he suspected that Israel was involved [in the Stuxnet virus].

He noted that Meir Dagan, head of Mossad, had his term extended last year partly because he was said to be involved in important projects. He added that in the past year Israeli estimates of when Iran will have a nuclear weapon had been extended to 2014.

“They seem to know something, that they have more time than originally thought,” he said.

While neoconservatives in the U.S. and their allies on the Israeli right speak often about how Iran is on the cusp of nuclear weapons capability, this seems not to be the case — even by the estimates of Israeli intelligence.

Just yesterday, speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations, neoconservative Sen. Joe Lieberman said that Iran was mere months away from a weapons capability:

As my colleague in the House of Representatives, Foreign Affairs Chairman Howard Berman, warned last week, we are talking about months, not years.

Right-wing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been talking for years about how an Iranian bomb was right aoround the corner. He started up this meme as early as 1995 — 15 years ago — with his book “Fighting Terrorism.” Phil Weiss has the key quote from Netanyahu, way back when (with my emphasis):

The best estimates at this time place Iran between three and fve years away from possessing the prerequisites required for the independent production of nuclear weapons. After this time, the Iranian Islamic republic will have the ability to construct atomic weapons without the importation of materials or technology from abroad.

If the Israeli intelligence estimate is to be believed, either these characters have a very distorted sense of time — 15 Earth years equals no time at all for Netanyahu — or they are promoting an alarmist time frame in the pursuit of an agenda.

(H/T Mid East Brief)

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2 Responses to Israel estimates Iran will have the bomb in 2014

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  1. avatar Roger Lafontaine says:

    No they won’t have a bomb by 2014 because they are not building a bomb nor do they want one. Ahmedinejad is not lying when he says that nuclear weapons are weapons of the past. He truly believes that. The man has his faults that is obvious and I won’t go over them now but in some ways he can be relied upon to tell the truth, probably – make that no doubt more than Clinton and Obama and practically any other American or Israeli politician who are inveterate liars because they are materialists or realists whereas Ahmedinejad is an idealist and as an idealist he must tell the truth always. He truly believes that the Mahdi will come within his lifetime, just as Netanyahu believes that the Iran bomb will come, and so there will be no need for this immoral weapon. Materialistic people always have exaggerated fears about what idealists may do and then they behave like fascists to protect themselves from ‘those mad idealists’. As bad as Ahmedinejad is in some very repressive ways he is still better than all the American and Israeli politicians who always find a new excuse for war against weaker foes.

  2. avatar BiBiJon says:

    Less deeply buried was a June 17th, 2009 report:

    “Speaking before the Knesset’s foreign affairs and defense committee Tuesday, Dagan, head of Israel’s Mossad, warned if the Islamic Republic’s race for nuclear power is not interrupted, Iran will have its first nuclear bomb by 2014”

    http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/06/17/Mossad-head-Iran-will-have-bomb-by-2014/UPI-87651245237586/


About the Author

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Ali Gharib is a New York-based journalist on U.S. foreign policy with a focus on the Middle East and Central Asia. His work has appeared at Inter Press Service, where he was the Deputy Washington Bureau Chief; the Buffalo Beast; Huffington Post; Mondoweiss; Right Web; and Alternet. He holds a Master's degree in Philosophy and Public Policy from the London School of Economics and Political Science. A proud Iranian-American and fluent Farsi speaker, Ali was born in California and raised in D.C.



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