by Nader Entessar and Kaveh L. Afrasiabi
As the clock ticks closer to Trump’s Iran decision in mid-May, dark clouds are thickening over the Iran deal as a result of the recent White House reshuffling of replacing relative Iran doves with fiercely anti-Iran hawks. Confronted with the likely prospect of Trump’s finally delivering on his campaign promise of tearing the agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran’s diplomacy has accelerated to a higher gear. Tehran is hoping to minimize the damage and still somehow salvage the JCPOA with the help of the rest of the nations who authored it—Russia, China, France, England, and Germany.
Chances are, however, that the process of demise of the JCPOA is irreversible. Tehran continues to pin a great deal of hope on Europe, which remains divided on how to properly respond to Trump’s on-going march against the JCPOA. But few in Iran’s decision-making echelons are optimistic that Europe will stand up to Washington and choose to collide with the Trump administration over Iran. In fact, there is a growing worry that, despite their stated misgivings about Trump’s anti-JCPOA posture, the Europeans will end up appeasing him. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are lobbying the Western governments to adopt firm positions against Tehran and its perceived hegemonic actions in the region.
As a result of the growing uncertainty over the fate of JCPOA, the initial European enthusiasm for investing in Iran has all but disappeared, and Iran is now openly questioning the loyalty of France’s oil giant Total over its new multi-billion dollar energy contract. Indeed, Total may well pull out of the Iran oil market as the United States, after withdrawing from the JCPOA, reinstates sanctions affecting foreign corporations doing business with Iran. This is a sad commentary on Europe’s lack of resolve concerning transatlantic US-Europe relations.
Later this month, however, French President Emmanuel Macron will visit the White House in an effort, reportedly, to persuade Trump of the importance of sticking with the JCPOA. Macron may win a small, but temporary, concession if Trump again defers final judgment on the JCPOA. After all, Trump’s foreign policy team is still in transition: Mike Pompeo has yet to be confirmed as the new secretary of state, and recently appointed National Security Advisor John Bolton has yet to settle into his new role. In addition, the Pentagon remains publicly pro-JCPOA. A deferral would give a new lease of life to the JCPOA. But it might only delay the final blow until September when the war cabinet is in full saddle.
Anticipating the worst, the government of President Hassan Rouhani has preemptively bolstered Iran’s economic and trade relations with China, India, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and East Europe in the hopes that these countries will not revert to their pre-JCPOA shunning of Iran because of international sanctions. No new UN sanctions are likely following a US withdrawal from the JCPOA, so Iran is fairly confident that the era of oil sanctions is over. In the absence of effective oil sanctions, Iran’s economy will remain afloat. Tehran will manage to survive any American post-JCPOA blows, which other nations won’t duplicate so long as Iran plays its card right.
Of course, Iran will respond to a US exit from the JCPOA. Both President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif have repeatedly stated that Iran will give “serious” and “proportionate” responses. Other Iranian officials, such as the head of Iran’s atomic energy organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, have threatened to resume full-scale nuclear work. Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi echoed this sentiment when he recently told an audience at London’s Chatham House that the West should expect the renewal of the Iran nuclear crisis if the JCPOA fails.
Araghchi, who has since then held bilateral talks with the US officials in Vienna within the context of JCPOA’s internal conflict resolution mechanism, has hinted that Iran is open to further negotiations but only after other parties faithfully implement their part of the JCPOA bargain. That seems increasingly unlikely, at least from the US vantage point, which is why Iran is nowadays assessing its options, ranging from limited to extended retaliation. The latter includes Iran’s reciprocal exit from the JCPOA, the termination of all its nuclear obligations under the accord, and perhaps going so far as exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty altogether.
Although NPT withdrawal does not seem very likely, Iranian anger at an American “betrayal” in the face of Iran’s good-faith implementation of its obligations may force the moderate Rouhani government to adopt such extreme measures to placate national sentiment. Under increasing pressure from hardliners, the government may well move closer to Russia and China, reduce its cooperation with the IAEA, and end its implementation of the Additional Protocol even as it stays within the JCPOA. In such a scenario, Iran would abide by the terms of its normal safeguard agreement and nothing more. Such a measured response would deprive Iran’s adversaries of the necessary ammo to snap back sanctions, which would occur if Iran exits the JCPOA. Iran can then use its selective non-implementation as leverage with the Europeans and others.
Iran’s image, power, and prestige are currently on the line, and it goes beyond the nuclear issue. For anyone in Iran to contemplate a less-than-forceful response to a unilateral U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA is indeed tantamount to political suicide.
Nader Entessar is professor emeritus of political science at the University of South Alabama and Kaveh Afrasiabi is a former political science professor at the University of Tehran. They are the authors of Iran Nuclear Accord and the Remaking of the Middle East (Rowman & Littlefield, 2018) and Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Accord and Detente Since the Geneva Agreement of 2013 (Rowman & Littefield, 2015).
“NeoCons are so opposed to the JCPOA, it has nothing to do with nukes.” my question is why are the NeoCons so opposed to the regime in Iran? It would be easy to just sit back and say that it is all their fault and you may find a receptive audience. From my point of view, Iranian leaders also made a number of mistakes. There were opportunities to improve ties, there were opportunities to be less belligerent but some leaders always wanted to portray themselves as revolutionaries forgetting that the revolution came and went in 1979 and now was the time to govern. Their job is to work for the people of Iran and not to run around championing other causes. For parallels look at the attitude of Malaki and Abadi in Iran. Abadi doesn’t act like Malaki and therefore doesn’t face the same hostility. Why can’t Iran soften its image?
Excellent points and a good read. Thanks
Let’s look at the iran’s situation in a global sense! Since when the US became a unipolar power following the crumbling of the Soviet Union it hasn’t managed its position as the single power for the reasons of euphoria or arrogance or both. The US has been wrapped up and so focused on the Cold War militarily that it had forgotten its responsibilities as the only superpower in respect to the entire world. The US continued with its arrogance foolishly and militarily even after the Cold War era at the expense of its private sectors with exception of the military industrial complex (MIC) as it is evident by 2 major phenomena:
1. Expansion of its military and MIC which is very evident in the ever increasing of the Pentagon’s budget since Reagan
2. Lack of investments domestically in the private sector caused the major industries to moving their facilities to the country south and from there to Far East for lowering their operating costs and increasing their profits. Of course saturation of the US market with stuff didn’t help either
The bottom line is that the US didn’t understand the consequences of ignoring its position in the world and the geopolitical challenges it might face in its future.
As result the rest of the world such as China and Russia did take advantage of the US arrogance and slowly and methodically became powerful to the point that the world became multipolar. Of course in this process the EU was eliminated as power house and EU is mostly watching!
At the same time the US farmed out its foreign policy to the neocons which is been proven to be disastrous for the US and to the benefit of Israel. Now the US is frustrated with its own actions in the past few decades and now trying to deal with Russia and China in order to regain its position politically and economically in the world. But this is an awesome and challenging task to trying to regain its position in the world while maintaining its extremely high cost militarily. The US doesn’t want to face the other big powers like China and Russia militarily therefore it has to keep its military apparatus busy with what it can without seeing any repercussion. The small and almost powerless countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iran fit this category for the US. The US will pull out of JCOPA soon while EU continue to watching!
Therefore, with no support from the East or EU Iran has no choice to pursue what it intends to do back in 1989 for the Iraqi imposed war against its people! I’m somewhat relieved to hear that the Iranians are examining their options should the US pulls out and the EU Pplaying the pussy!
The neocons are keeping the bag of “excuses and pretexts” full for the US at all time and the bag won’t go empty in a foreseeable future! Therefore Iran has no option but to protect its people asap because this Monday John Bolton will start his mission in the WH!
Excellent analysis by two leading experts of Iranian foreign affairs. Their books are must read too, and are quite insightful. I wish someone would send a copy to White House! Trump and company are deluding themselves thinking they can trash the deal and Iran will sheepishly continue with all its nuclear sacrifices, time to wake up and smell the coffee if they do it they only cause another North Korea