The Iran experts at the Rand Corporation, including Alireza Nader, who has written for LobeLog, are always worth reading. That’s why Iran-watchers like me can willfully spend part of a slow-news Friday reading a Rand report on what regional responses to a final deal with Iran over its nuclear program might look like. The video I’ve included above includes discussion on some of the report’s main points and you can read the entire report below or download it on Rand’s website. I was particularly interested in the part on how Israel may react.
[gview file=”http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PE100/PE122/RAND_PE122.pdf”]
A day late and a dollar short. The audio left a lot to be desired yesterday, (Friday) the written word[s] today, (Saturday) leave me asking: “Netanyahoo’s bloviating about Iran, isn’t he describing what Israel has done, in regards to the Nuclear issue, as in not wanting its neighbors in any position to resist the bully tactics, like in the old Charles Atlas ads of the 20th century, “The Bully On The Beach”, going around kicking sand in the faces of other[s], especially the weak. If anything, Israeli leader[s] today have shown that indeed, they can’t be trusted to keep its word, especially in the negotiations over the occupied territories. Netanyahoo and the rest of the hardliners, both in Israel as well as in the U.S., need a sobering wake up call, taking away the security blanket of the U.S. backing Israel regardless. IMHO.
If we preamble the strategic interests of US and the West in free flow of oil from the Persian Gulf, then we could perhaps lift some of the contradictions that emanate from positions that are taken. The core perceived Iranian threat perhaps centers not so much on their nuclear ambitions but more so on their rather independent foreign policy road, one which the Islamic Republic has taken for the last 35 years. This position does not bode well for us for many reasons and hence our terse reactions for over three decades to developments on the ground.
There are many that find it illogical that we ignore Pakistan; who has nuclear bombs, and as some people believe, it also has the delivery missile capability. Its government, security forces and military are dominated to a large extent by Muslim extremists and it has supported the Taliban, while to very recently sheltering Osama Bin-Laden. Given Pakistan’s state of bankrupt economy and pledges made by Saudi Arabia to bolster it, one cannot wonder as to what in return the Saudis are seeking from their support? As we concentrate all our diplomatic efforts in the region on IRI, we seemed to have taken our eyes off of the more serious and imminent concerns that may emerge from Pakistan.
The question that begs an answer is what strategy are we pursuing to fortify our position in the Persian Gulf, should we find ourselves faced with a nuclear armed military not on the Iranian shores, but the Arabian Peninsula?