Patrick Disney, the former Assistant Policy Director for the National Iranian American Council, has written a great piece responding to Ray Takeyh and Steven Simon’s Washington Post op-ed, which Tony Karon described as “a ‘how-to-bomb Iran’ manual.”
(Ali discussed the increasingly hawkish rhetoric coming out of the Council on Foreign Relations in his blog post Monday.)
Disney’s critical analysis of Takeyh and Simon’s article concludes that a bombing campaign of the type proposed by the CFR scholars would have disastrous effects.
Disney writes:
First, there is no military option short of a full-blown invasion and occupation. Even if all of Iran’s nuclear facilities can be located, and even if they can all be destroyed with surgical air strikes, the ruling hardliners will just rebuild them — only this time without the contraints of the IAEA.
Indeed, no proposed air strike would permanently destroy Iran’s alleged nuclear ambitions and would probably exacerbate already tense U.S.-Iran and Iran-Israel relations.
He continues:
Secondly, and most disappointingly, Takeyh and Simon’s analysis totally ignores the devastating impact an attack would have on the long-term prospect of democracy in Iran. Iranians last summer took to the streets in the most passionate outbreak of popular dissatisfaction since the 1979 revolution. Those who know their history viewed the events of last year as the latest step in Iran’s democratic evolution — a process that began over 100 years ago with the constitutional revolution of 1906. Although the street protests have died down and the democracy movement is in some disarray, it is clearly still a factor in Iran. Unfortunately, dropping bombs on Iran now is the surest way to uproot any hope for peaceful democratic change in the country. The hardliners will most likely use an act of foreign aggression as justification for a brutal crackdown, and the focus of political discourse will shift away from questions of internal reforms and regime legitimacy toward external threats and the need to rally the nation’s defenses.
While Takeyh and Simon may have the luxury of discussing their hypothetical best-case scenarios for bombing Iran, Disney draws a believably dismal picture of what a U.S. or Israeli military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities might bring.
An Iranian regime which has quit the IAEA, crushed its domestic opposition and turned its nuclear program into a symbol of avenging the countless deaths from an Israeli or American air strike is a frightening thought, but one which — no thanks to alarmists such as Takeyh and Simon — could become a reality.
Disney concludes:
With the anti-Iran rhetoric at a fever pitch in Washington, it’s easy to forget sometimes just how remote of a threat Iran’s nuclear program actually is. According to numerous unclassified assessments by the U.S. Intelligence Community, Iran has not yet decided to pursue a nuclear bomb, and the US and international community still has time to convince them not to. The three to five years an attack would gain now will most certainly not be worth the cost it would incur: a non-democratic Iran with an overt nuclear weapons program and a vendetta against Western powers who attacked it.
Jon. I have to agree with you but, and I’m sure you already know this, we get “analysis” in the face from just about everywhere and I for one feel like a deer in a constant stream of propagandist headlights. The warmongers trot out their bought and paid for “experts” who are usually ex-military and now on the payroll of some company peddling their latest death dealing devices. These double-dipping douche-bags have no “credibility” in my eyes. Why? Because their bread and butter has been the advancement of the empire before and after wearing their taxpayer financed costumes.
The jingoist spin coming out of DC about the imminently grave danger Iran presents to the world and global peace is not, and never has been about their nuclear program. That’s merely a propaganda front for the benefit of Boobus Americanus. It is, and always has been about AIPAC and ‘our really good and great friend and loyal ally(sic)’ in the Middle East, the Zionist State of Israel and the protection thereof. Just as was the devastation of Iraq and the 30,000+ US casualties who took bullets for their sake.
The US hoping that Iranian would be feared now and throw them their babies and maybe their pants and run or ask for forgiveness. Very Funny the way their little brain operates, what are they thinking if they ever do. The Zionists dont want to believe their game is up. Nobody buys this bul. You want to hit me just do it and take the consequences, don’t start your singing and dancing. Time for bullying and intimidation is over reality and truth is here.
America is full of deluded ignorant people, who rationalize their own misdeeds, while demonizing those who retaliate against their aggression. America is also ruled by a class of looters and criminals. The entire US economy is centred on waste, exploitation, mindless consumerism, and war profiteering. This is fully supported by both political parties. The US corporate media is a cesspool of lies, 365 days a year,
The question is what you are going to do after, if you destroy what ever you think you can destroy. Iran is a real tiger not a paper one.
Poor US soldiers. Imagine the torture in their head. I would say they deserve it. What do you think killed Alexander the Great?
We Iranian are ready and very happy to join and cooperate with any free and peace loving brave people in any corner of the earth regardless of their religious belief.
Patience is very valuable asset, that why Islam always emphasizes about it. Its like a (JOKER) in card playing, it could be used anywhere and anytime, so please Muslims be patient and trust the leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, time is in our side, we can hold our breath, but the enemy breath is running out..
Iran is in NPT because it honest and wants to prove to the world that it is a peaceful nation, and if you look at the Treaty, suppose to help the countries signatories to the treaty, which has not fulfilled regarding Iran. The history of the treaty tells us, it was designed by the countries that had already possessed the bomb that their club closed to others. IAEA regarding Iran has been used for political reasons, a tool to put pressure on selected nations in support of the Zionists.
Iran can compete with the west by revealing the true about the western governments, what the west does is contradictory to what they say. The truth always wins, we just don’t have patience. Well done Iran, you truly understand the western mind.
The world knows that the dollar is falling and must fall sooner or later, attacking Iran only accelerate that process. Dollar is floating only by the power of military, and when that myth is discredited the whole thing will fall with a big splash, crashing like a cow pat. Mark these words.
If those Iranians who demonstrate against their government had an iota about how world politics and economy works. They have no idea about the western governments and their allies who promote their protest against the Iranian regime want to break them and then enslave them. They just submitted to their own enemy and being used as a tool to cause disorder in the nation, it’s so obvious and clear. Ignorant and weak people are everywhere.
You so called “paul” are not a full shilling. Iran does not need any Nukes, they are repeating it every day, strategically and for long term, nuclear bomb does not work for Iran or for any righteous nation.
*The world wake up before it’s too late. The whole world is being pillaged and squandered for the sake of profits. The whole humanity is been doctored and enslaved for the sake of human’s sadistic, ignorance and control. Every game comes to an end, and Capitalism is just a game of Monopoly and we all know how that game ends. All these conferences are just staged part of their hypnotizing machine. It’s a MONSTER!!!!!! People Unite or be enslaved and live in hell on earth.
*Why God give so much power to the west, and I always say, they only have power because you are weak. We are not aware of the forces that rule the masses and societies and so on. Simply we do not want to admit what human being is. The enemies of Iran is extremely experienced, they tap into hardwire senses, ie; Feeling of inferiority and ego, to drive the masses by their ignorance and control them like a herd of sheep, by the basic Mechanisms every human being is born with. It’s a sort of what you call Magic. Of course, Money and collaborators are needed.
Listen. We are not going to let your ‘Mullahs’ get their hands on a nuke.
Aint gonna happen.
You say your population is so educated and craves democracy. Then you of all people should know that your Islamic rulers, who all swear they cant wait for the imam to show up (really???) and have already stated their intentions to use that nuke for said purpose, must be stopped at all costs.
Doesn’t look like your little ‘green movement’ is doing a damn thing so get ready because I swear, if you don’t stop your insane regime, we will.