On the heels of President George W. Bush’s latest threats against Iran for its “murderous activities” in Iraq, the Weekly Standard has obligingly published a 30-page report by Kimberly Kagan, spouse of Surge co-architect and American Enterprise Institute (AEI) fellow Frederick Kagan and director of an entity called The Institute for the Study of War, entitled “Iran’s Proxy War Against the United States and the Iraqi Government” . The report seems intended to back up a series of Bush’s assertions from his American Legion speech in Reno Wednesday about alleged Iranian support for and arming of “Shia extremists.” The coincidence of the speech and the report suggests some co-ordination between the White House and the Standard since the report itself would be the kind of product that would normally be put out by the State Department and/or the Pentagon. It would not be surprising if Cheney alludes to it in his next public appearance or media interview.
Unlike the breathless disclosures of Stephen Hayes, the Standard’s correspondent who was used by Cheney’s office and former Undersecretary of Defense Douglas Feith as a conduit for “authorized” leaks regarding the alleged relationship between Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda, Kagan’s report, the sixth in a series of monthly analyses defending the “Surge” strategy, appears to be based primarily on published sources and Pentagon briefings, although its factual assertions often go beyond those of the sources on which she relies. (“The government of Iran has also exported rockets, sniper rifles and mortars to enemy groups in Iraq.”) Unsurprisingly, her conclusions imply that diplomatic engagement with Iran is counter-productive. (“These negotiations with Iran, including the establishment of a tripartite sub-ambassadorial level coordinating committee on security in Iraq, have coincided with a significant increase in Iranian support for violence in Iraq.”)
The main thrust of the report is stated by its title, and it presages a major push by the U.S. military against Iranian-backed forces in Iraq. While it stresses that it does “not offer policy recommendations,” it also concludes that, with Sunni insurgents supposedly increasingly under control, “Iranian intervention is the next major problem the Coalition must tackle.”
The Summary reads as follows:
“Iran, and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah, have been actively involved in supporting Shia militias and encouraging sectarian violence in Iraq since the invasion of 2003 – and Iranian planning and preparation for that effort began as early as 2002. The precise purposes of this support are unclear and may have changed over time. But one thing is very clear: Iran has consistently supplied weapons, its own advisors, and Lebanese Hezbollah advisors to multiple resistance groups in Iraq, both Sunni and Shia, and has supported these groups as they have targeted Sunni Arabs, Coalition forces, Iraqi Security Forces, and the Iraqi Government itself. Their influence runs from Kurdistan to Basrah, and Coalition forces, a dramatic change from previous periods that had seen the overwhelming majority of attacks coming from the Sunni Arab insurgency and al Qaeda.
“The Coalition has stepped-up [sic] its efforts to combat Iranian intervention in Iraq in recent months both because the Iranians have increased their support for violence in Iraq since the start of the surge and because Coalition successes against al Qaeda in Iraq and the larger Sunni insurgency have permitted the re-allocation of resources and effort against a problem that has plagued attempts to establish a stable government in Iraq from the outset. With those problems increasingly under control, Iranian intervention is the next major problem the Coalition must tackle.”
K. Kagan, who has accompanied her husband on some of his guided tours of Iraq (and indeed helped escort Bill Kristol on his trip there last month), is, like her husband, a military historian who, according to her bio, has taught at the U.S. Military Academy, Yale University, Georgetown University and American University and is currently an affiliate of Harvard’s John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, a department founded by Samuel Huntington is now headed by Steve Rosen. Rosen, as I noted in a recent post, is a prominent neo-conservative who is a member of Rudy Giuliani’s heavily Likudnik foreign policy advisory team and who also contributed to “Rebuilding America’s Defenses,” the 2000 guide by Kristol’s Project for the New American Century (PNAC) to ensuring U.S. military dominance of much of the planet. Rosen, I understand, is not shy about granting affiliate status to like-minded scholars; he appointed Martin Kramer, another Giuliani adviser based in Israel, to a fellowship there.
Kagan’s Institute is something of a mystery. Its website, www.understandingwar.org, includes very little information about the organization, if that’s what it can be called. No mention of a board of directors or other associates or fellows besides Kagan herself. Only Kagan’s Iraq reports, her “courses, seminars, and lectures” and her “battlefield staff rides” which, so far as I can tell, have only to do with specific battles from classical Greek warfare through Caesar’s conquest of Gaul, the American Revolutionary and Civil Wars, the Napoleonic Wars (minus Spain, the most relevant campaign to the Iraq war), the wars of German Unification, and World Wars I and II. How this establishes her expertise for assessing the Iraq war or the extent of Iranian involvement in that war is quite beyond me, but then Frederick Kagan’s expertise is in 19th century Germany military history whose relevance to counter-insurgency warfare in the post-colonial period is also unclear.
Kimberley’s doctorate from Yale University was in Ancient History, which must gladden the heart of her father-in-law, Yale classicist (and neo-conservative) who also specializes in military history, Donald Kagan, under whom I presume she studied. Of course, her brother-in-law is Robert Kagan, one of neo-conservatism’s leading thinkers. Which once again helps illustrate just how small and incestuous the neo-conservative elite is, what with the Kristol-Himmelfarbs, the Podhoretz-Decter-Abrams, the Kagans, the Gaffneys (Frank and Devon) siblings, and the Ledeens (Michael, Barbara, and Simone), to the most prominent. It’s no wonder that they are so susceptible to groupthink.
First, Jim’s post is a straightforward laying out of the truth about the propoganda conspiracy that is coming our way, even tho it may be legal, in support of attacking Iran on the administration’s way out the door.
It is, in a word, incontrovertible. And I thank Jim for his work.
SM appears to try to correct the record that this is not a neocon thing, as the Clintonites and DLC were just as culpable. I say thank you very much for pointing that out. It does nothing to right any of the wrongdoing being perpetrted on the country and the planet, but it does spread the guilt around, perhaps in a more even-handed way.
Yes, the neoliberals(Democrats) cannot be relied on to do anything different than the neocons. They are both in awe and fear of AIPAc and the Mossad, and we really should keep that in mind.
Unfortunately, he also tries to somehow deny the truth that Bush Lied because we can count on the fact that the CIA version of the facts corrected the falsehoods delivered by Cheney’s office by DF the previous week. Now, whomever believes that is someone clearly not looking for the cause of the problem, but for an obfuscated version of reality.
And to finalize about the last war, I think PC above says it best.
But Jim was writing about the next war. How can there be any doubt in any observer’s mind that the same old Cheney-driven, DLC and PNAC supported vacuous rhetoric is not now again unfolding before our eyes while the mainstream media beats the war drums in a way that clearly covers up their weak and tardy mea-culpa for making the exact same mistake last time.
Keep your fingers crossed for peace.
This blog needs a serious redesign so that it is taken more seriously at first glance by new readers.
Iran is “surging” in Iraq also–
Major General James Simmons
Deputy Commanding General for Multi National Forces in Iraq
interview with Hugh Hewitt (extract)
August 29, 2007
HH: All right, Iâ??ll follow up with him. But then let me ask you generally, do you think Iranian-backed attacks are increasing or decreasing right now?
JS: I believe that the Iranians have supplied, they have surged supplies, training and munitions into Iraq to counter our surge operations that we are conducting.
HH: And what level does that rise to? Are they doubling, tripling their effort?
JS: I would hate to put a number on it, but what we saw was in July, we had the highest number of EFPâ??s that we have had in theater. Those EFPâ??s come from Iran. We have still seen a significant uptick in EFPâ??s, although the numbers are probably going to be lower in August than they were in July. The number of rocket attacks and indirect fire attacks into our FOBâ??s and our camps has been elevated, and the fires have come predominantly from Shia-dominated areas, and those are Iranian made munitions that are being fired in that. And then we have some very clear evidence that there has been training that has been sponsored by folks that use the techniques that Iranians use to train people.
HH: Can you expand on that a little bit, General, as to what kind of evidentiary markers you find that would lead one to believe the Quds forces are involved, or Hezbollah?
JS: Itâ??s the techniques that they use for in placing the weapons systems, particular the indirect fire systems that theyâ??re using, which require some form of military training to be able to execute that.
HH: Have we captured actual Iranians in operational settings, General, as opposed to simply doing espionage, meaning that theyâ??re commanding and controlling attacks on Americans?
JS: I really donâ??t think Iâ??m in a position to be qualified to answer that one.
http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/talkradio/transcripts/Transcript.aspx?ContentGuid=d3daae76-7f52-4b29-a9b5-06573738a55f
Observing that IED (Improvised Explosive Device) or better explained Minto’s in the soda bottle included are not a formal or recognised weapon system. These getting built, in pipe bomb fashion by various Iraqi resistance groups, whom coincidently are called ‘insurgents’ (implying an illigitimate group in opposition to a established, and capable government). The term IED, then having undergone a make over, has come to be called Explosively Formed Projectiles/Penetrators (pick your choice of the euphemism depending on the testosterone levels). In any case the Orwellian new-speak apparently has done the trick, and now the debate has moved on to who is manufacturing these?
Fact that this narrative unfolding originally was floated as ‘shaped charges’ to distance it from the ‘Improvised’ curse, which was the label used first to indicate the weakness of the Iraqi forces, hence validating the prognosis of yet another neo con Kenneth ‘Cake Walk’ Adelman. Alas the Iraqis whom were to greet the invaders with sweet, flowers, and songs, had not read or heard of yet more neo con Mr. Perle’s scenario, and chose to fight back. Hence the need for transmogrification of IED to ‘Shaped Charges’ making these more sophisticated, and more difficult to fight with, although as anyone knows shaped charges have been around since the nineteenth century, and are not exactly cutting edge science. Also at that time the technicalities of the high-explosives were floated to make these Do It Yourself devices more complex (ie hdx, etc.) hence explaining away the delays in the accomplishment of the ‘Mission Accomplished’. These efforts in attempting to give traction to the travails, and slings and arrows of the war not getting anywhere, and the slow and perhaps stunted progress of ‘victory’, then finally the EFP’s were introduced, and this time around the marketing boys managed to get the narrative going, and further the hunt for the fiendish ‘Moriarty’ whose dastardly superior technology is now further grinding the accomplishment of the ‘Mission Accomplished) to a halt. Although EFP are in fact IED with a twist, that can be mastered by any first year metallurgy course student, and or any competent blacksmith, but who cares about the mundane facts, we make our own ‘reality’ these days.
Presto the Iranians are put into the frame with some media packages of bullets and shells to boot. Fact that Iran sells weapons to some forty five or more countries, and their weapons can be obtained from numerous sources is never mentioned, and further not mentioned are the authenticity of the finds, and the merits of such an ‘accurate’ pontification. Those whom do not suffer from dementia, would remember the ‘Uranom’ [sic] (this material was a combination of Zinc, Magnesium, and some other compounds which would have made a great poultice for anyone afflicted by boils) find on the Iraqi Turkish border, that was shown to the world in its ‘Made In Germany’ cannister with the subsequent voice over of the rent an expert mob, whom all speculated the amounts of uranium found, to be one half of that needed for production of a WMD. This event taking place in the months leading up to Iraq war. It is worth noting that Turkey, and Germany at the time were not playing the game as they were expected to by US, hence the implied guilt, and of course yet another ‘smoking gun’ proving Saddam’s drive for getting nukes.
Also worth remembering is the weapons find in Vietnam, that were always trumpeted in the media, at the time of that war which apparently could have been won, as per Mr. Bush speeches of late. Those images of Sampans stuffed with all manner of weapons, were attributed to Laotians aiding and abetting the ‘Vietcong’ by filling up these vessels with weapons, and subsequently cutting these loose, for the ‘Vietcong’ down the river, which was a prelude to attacks on Laos. Although we now know that these weapon filled Sampans were in fact CIA inspired and affected operations, nevertheless hundreds of thousands of Laotians were killed anyway.
Finally, considering that even the more conscientious, among the journalists are using the new-speak references, product of think tankery, in fact aiding in confusing of an already made complex story for the lesser mortals. It is no wonder that the neo con enjoy such an easy passage time and again in doing what they do the best; confuse the punters even more.
Fact that our political institutions have steadily sought and set up constructs to reduce the levels of accountability, to their constituents, ie we the people, is never discussed in the brouhaha of the apparent discourse that somehow outsources the whole of US foreign policy to various think tanks enjoying funds from dubious sources which are in fact offshore constructs of the various federal entities with no accountability of any sorts. This facet extending to the instantiation of the ‘Office of Special Plans’ in Pentagon which was basically Mr. Fieth, an Intern, and others whom Mr. Fieth chose to shape up the Iraqi intelligence for the media, while spooks of all manner and shape bound by their secrecy, left the field open for Mr. Fieth’s shenanigans. That in fact shows the degree of deterioration in any kind of accountability. Hence it should come as no surprise to Find Mr. Kagan, Mrs Kagan, Kagans’ in laws, Kagans’ neighbours, Kagans’ pets producing documents that are then touted in the media as the precursors for policy annunciations. The title ought to be outsourced US foreign policy, where is it going?
mark,
when ahmadinedjad says “very well, go, we’ll take your place” he knows perfectly that this will be a strong argument in the us against leaving. he certainly doesn’t want to get involve in the irak mess while his country can exert great infulence through proxies.
so the question is still unanswered : why does he wants the surge to stay the course ?