by Eldar Mamedov
In case anyone thought Iran was bluffing with its threats to respond robustly to U.S. “maximum pressure,” recent developments should have disabused them of that notion. Not only did Iran down a highly sophisticated American drone near its borders in the Persian Gulf, but it also announced plans to reduce its commitments under the nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA). The phase of strategic patience Iran exercised in the year after the United States violated the agreement has come to an end. It is now being replaced by an assertive action phase. That action will develop on two main fronts: the nuclear agreement and regional security.
Contrary to a popular view in the West, this shift is not the result of “hard-liners” displacing “moderates.” There is a job division within the Iranian system: diplomats deal with the nuclear dossier while the Revolutionary Guards lead on military deterrence. There is, however, an overarching unity of purpose: to strike back, with all means available, at what Iran sees as an economic war waged by the United States and its regional allies Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel.
Far from being an act of suicidal defiance by some irascible religious fanatic, Iran’s decision to respond to U.S. pressure follows from a set of careful strategic calculations and domestic political imperatives. After respecting fully their JCPOA commitments and being denied economic dividends, Iranians decided that they should not be the only ones paying the price of the American decision to violate that agreement.
On the nuclear file, the decision to surpass the stockpiles of 300 kilograms of low enriched uranium (LEU) permitted by the JCPOA by July 2019 is designed to pressure the Europeans to deliver on their commitments to provide economic benefits to Iran. Although the EU insists on full implementation of the JCPOA, reduced compliance is the best that Iran can offer at this stage. Such a decision is the result of a national compromise among different forces, including those calling for pulling out of the JCPOA and possibly even the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as well.
The purpose of this move, according to Iranian officials, is not to destroy the JCPOA but to save it. As soon as Iranians get the promised sanctions relief, the process can be quickly reversed to a stockpile below 300 kilograms of LEU. To get back to that point, a practical solution has to be found on Iranian oil exports. If European companies refrain from buying Iranian oil out of a fear of heavy American sanctions, officials in Tehran insist that the EU issue credit lines: make money available to Iran to cover its needs in exchange for oil deliveries after the lifting of the sanctions in the future. Iranians reason that if the EU indeed sees the JCPOA as essential to its security, as its officials often claim, it should put its money where its mouth is.
On the military side, Iran is increasing pressure on the United States to abandon its “maximum pressure” policy by seeking to impose real costs. Tehran’s downing an American drone should be seen in this context, not as an unprovoked hostile act. Although American drones reportedly violated Iranian territorial integrity in the past, the current context obliges Iranians to respond, at some point, publicly and visibly, as both a deterrent and a demonstration of their ability to defend their people and territory.
Trump’s announcement that he stopped a retaliatory strike and now looks forward for “negotiations without preconditions” with Iran might appear as an opportunity to arrest the slide to war. Not so in the eyes of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. This, again, is not a sign of some pathological stubbornness or ideological anti-Americanism. It is simply because negotiating now would validate the basic premise of the “maximum pressure” campaign: that suffocating Iran economically has forced it to the negotiating table to make further concessions—this time also on ballistic missiles and regional policies, deliberately excluded from the JCPOA. Trump´s imposition of sanctions on top Iranian officials, including Ayatollah Khamenei and foreign minister Javad Zarif, only underscores the hollowness of his offer to talk.
So, as Washington doesn´t appear to be serious about lifting the economic siege of Iran, Tehran will seek to coerce it to do so. The downing of the drone is a message that Iran means business. Absent changes in American behavior, this may not be the last step in the series of Iranian escalations. Officials in Tehran have repeatedly warned that, if they are unable to export oil, no one else in the Persian Gulf will either.
Just like with the nuclear issue, however, this escalation is reversible if the United States takes steps to stop its economic war against Iran. That, and not more sanctions, could even open the door for the talks Trump claims to seek. Ayatollah Khamenei made it clear that Iran would not negotiate “under pressure”—not that it would not do so under any circumstances. Potentially, that could even lead to broader talks on regional issues and ballistic missiles. But then all other issues will have to be brought to the table too, such as region-wide non-proliferation, covering Israel´s nuclear arsenal, Western arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the war in Yemen, and so on.
Although Iran’s strategy of reversible escalation enjoys a consensus among the elite, it is a risky one. Reducing commitments under the JCPOA may push Europeans closer to Trump, instead of stimulating them to deliver on their commitments to Iran, and increase Iran´s diplomatic isolation.
When it comes to United States, Iranians, particularly in the conservative camp, seem to be too sanguine about Trump not willing to start a war in order not to harm his re-election prospects in 2020. Despite the restraining influence of such figures on the American right as Senator Rand Paul and Fox TV anchor Tucker Carlson, Trump may still be painted into a corner by his hawkish advisers and lash out militarily at Iran.
When confronted with these doubts, Iranian officials seem to concede that their strategy is a gamble. However, a strong sense of being a wronged party, Iranian nationalism, and the regime´s revolutionary resistance ideology are preventing them from blinking first in their confrontation with the Americans. Whatever one thinks of the wisdom of such a posture given the existing balance of power, if the standoff ends up in a war, it will be America’s fault, not Iran’s.
This article reflects the personal views of the author and not necessarily the opinions of the S&D Group and the European Parliament.
Moji Agha
The name Islam is now mud in very many places all over the world.
That is due to actions of Sunni Muslim jihadists and not due to Shia Muslims.
Shia Muslims do not have to defend Sunni Islam, Shia belong to a different religion.
For the most part, Shia Muslims have entrusted to their ayatollahs the determination of what Islam is or is not.
For you, who, in the words of Jose Marti, are living in the belly of the Beast, it is ridiculous to claim a separate Islamic authenticity.
FYI,
Your proclamation that the Shia Muslims “belong to a different religion” is precisely what I mean when I say the Khamenei cult SERVES (as “enemy”) the colonial “divide-and-conquer” savagery of Trumpo-Saudi-Zionism.
For your information, O’ dear FYI, here is just one TINY example of the “Shia” crimes under Khamenei cult, within his closest circles, that happened only in the past few years:
As you know there is a good-looking (now middle-aged) man in Tehran, Iran called “Toosi” (himself raped repeatedly as a boy by “Shia” clerics) who was a talented teacher TO CHILDREN of Quranic recitation.
And since the abused (including the sexually abused) become abusers in lots of cases, Mr. Toosi, the darling of the “sin-less” Khamenei, went on to rape many boys, whose blindly “religious” families (followers of Khamenei cult’s absolutist interpretation of “Shia” Islam) entrusted this Khamenei-approved sexual predator to teach their boys (ranging from 9 to 13), for long hours, how to recite the Holy Quran, in the “Toosi School of Quranic Recitation.”
And again as you know, dear FYI, when some of the raped boys finally spoke out, to hide the scandale, their outraged families where bribed and/or were threatened to loss of job, jail, torture, rape (of the boys’ mothers in front of their husbands), death, etc. by Khamenei’s “intelligence” (and judiciary) goons.
And when some of the families (who were not intimidated into silence–because they really BELIEVED in “Shia” Islam) filed a courageous joint lawsuit to pursue the matter in the “Justice” courts of Khamenei, Mr. Toosi was found “innocent” — despite his own WRITTEN admissions.
And, O’ FYI, so far two Khamenei-appointed heads of such a “Shia” government’s judicial branch (the previous and the present one) have prevented “the toosi file” from being “re-opened” under direct orders from your Beloved “sinless” Khamenei.
So, with this TINY example of so-called “Shia” (Khamenei cult, the “internal despotism” darling–as “enemy”–of Trumpo-Saudi-Zionism’s “external colonialism”) horrendous crimes, do you still believe that I (“living in the belly of the Beast”) am so “ridiculous” because I indeed (and proudly) DO “claim a separate Islamic authenticity” from this PERVERTED kind of “Shia” Islam?
So, in conclusion, maybe you are right, and this Trumpo-Saudi-Zionism-serving (Khamenei cult) ANTI-ISLAMIC interpretation of “Shia” Islam, is indeed an entirely “different religion” — which is why it is trying to destroy the beautiful loving and just religion of (REAL) Islam, FYI.
It is never late to repent, O’ FYI, because God is “the most merciful, the most compassionate.”
Ya Hu / Ya Haq,
Mojtaba Aghamohammadi (Moji Agha)
MOJI AGHA
And I suggest you read the book titled: “The Dirty Files of French Police” – published in 1973.
And then there is that little matter of 4500 people lynched all over the United States….
Your argument is a specious argument – the maleficence of this or that member of the state does not necessarily incur to that state unless it can be established that such maleficence is ordered by the higher-ups.
You just hate Islamic Iran – and likely the Shia as well.
ARHAZIAN,
1- If by recommending “The Dirty Files of French Police” you are trying to deny the collaboration (as “enemy”) of Khamenei cult with Trumpo-Zionism, you have to show the connection–and I keep noting your curious refusal to mention Israel or Zionism in your writings.
2- The colonial crimes of the “civilized” white (European, American, and Zionist) far exceeds 4500 lynchings, it includes genocides of native “Americans,” and now the planned attack on Iran.
3- Khamenei has himself ordered Toosi to be declared “innocent” of child rape in his Quranic Recitation School–that has been a favorite of Khamenei himself. You can hide Khamenei cult’s “maleficence” behind “legal” language, but Truth is something will expose tyranny for what it is.
4- As to whether I “hate” (in your words) “Islamic Iran” (which you imply is something distinct from “Shia” — based on your last sentence), we real Muslims believe only GOD can judge.
5- And believe me, there is not a SHRED of Islam or Shia in your “Islamic Iran,” the same way that there is not a SHRED of Judaism in Zionism–which is co-dependent with Khamenei’s “absolute dictatorship” as “enemy.”
Ya Hu / Ya Haq,
Mojtaba Aghamohammadi (Moji Agha)
JAMES LARRIMORE
1- We know that your “President” Trump (and his Saudi-Zionist puppet masters) pretend to “love to see non-violent reforms in Iran” only to destroy nonviolent reformism (the path of Mossadegh) in the region.
2- Indeed Israel “prefers” a colonially servile regime in Iran, like the Saudi one–or like the Shah before the revolution.
3- And if your COLONIAL Trumpo-Zionist “military industrial complex” manages to re-impose the SERVILE son of the Shah onto the people of Iran, he will indeed be a “ceremonial head of state” because he would be a colonial puppet.
4- I know “Republicans” (and Zionists) are void of morality, but remember, Sir, you are complicit in all the crimes you are supporting (directly or indirectly–including the crimes that the Khamenei regime is committing) in the name of “American Exceptionalism,” even though you (and your undoubtedly white family) might be living in a “crime free” gated community, somewhere in the “civilized” West.