By Daniel Luban
This Friday, the American Enterprise Institute will host an event addressing the question “Should Israel attack Iran?” The event includes, among others, Iran uberhawk Michael Rubin and infamous “torture lawyer” John Yoo, but the real star is likely to be John Bolton, the former U.N. ambassador whose right-of-Attila views left him an outcast even within the second Bush administration. (Bolton was eventually forced out when it became clear that he would be unable to win Senate confirmation for the U.N. post.)
If Bolton’s recent rhetoric is any indication, his AEI appearance may accomplish the formidable feat of making Michael Rubin sound like a dove. Discussing Iran during a Tuesday speech at the University of Chicago, Bolton appeared to call for nothing less than an Israeli nuclear first strike against the Islamic Republic. (The speech, sponsored by the University Young Republicans and Chicago Friends of Israel, was titled, apparently without a trace of irony, “Ensuring Peace.”)
“Negotiations have failed, and so too have sanctions,” Bolton said, echoing his previously-stated belief that sanctions will prove ineffectual in changing Tehran’s behavior. “So we’re at a very unhappy point — a very unhappy point — where unless Israel is prepared to use nuclear weapons against Iran’s program, Iran will have nuclear weapons in the very near future.”
Bolton made clear that the latter option is unacceptable. “There are some people in the administration who think that it’s not really a problem, we can contain and deter Iran, as we did the Soviet Union during the Cold War. I think this is a great, great mistake and a dangerously weak approach…Whatever else you want to say about them, at least the Soviets believed that they only went around once in this world, and they weren’t real eager to give that up — as compared to a theological regime in Tehran which yearns for life in the hereafter more than life on earth…I don’t think [deterrence] works that way with a country like Iran.”
While Bolton coyly refused to spell out his conclusion, the implications of his argument were clear. If neither negotiations, nor sanctions, nor deterrence are options, then by his logic the only remaining option is for “Israel…to use nuclear weapons against Iran’s program.”
Of course, it is nothing new for Bolton and his neoconservative allies to threaten an Israeli strike against Iran. But Bolton’s use of the “n-word” is, I believe, new for him, and marks a significant rhetorical escalation from the hawks. An Israeli strike, nuclear or otherwise, without U.S. permission remains unlikely. But as it often the case, I suspect that Bolton’s intention is less to give an accurate description of reality than it is to stake out positions extreme enough to shift the boundaries of debate as a whole to the right.
[Cross-posted at The Faster Times.]
Israel is in a very weak position. They wanted to attack Iran. Their first step was in July 2006 war with Hezbollah. They terribly failed in that war. Israel couldn’t win a fight with one Iran’s hand sitting next its door step.
The important point missed in the article is that John Bolton’s remarks were aimed not so much at the American public but at the Iranian government.
During the past 6 years the THREAT of invading or attacking Iran has been on the agenda of US and Israeli governments. Declarations in this regard have become ever louder and more hysterical. And all the while the likelihood of the THREAT ever materializing has been receding.
Iranians are by now gotten used to it and pay little attention to the increasingly dire pronouncements coming from Israelis and their American allies.
John Bolton, like Netanyahu, feels powerless when faced with the inevitability of Iran becoming a member among nations fully mastering the nuclear technology.
Bringing up the notion and threat of attacking the country by unconventional weapons, means that John Bolton is desperate and has exhausted all other means of getting serious attention from Iran.
It seems that the Iranian government is preparing even for that eventuality. Building Qom nuclear plant is probably a further indication of that resolve and preparedness.
I disagree with Haich. I believe Israel will attempt to destroy or damage the Iranian sites if no progress is made in the six-power talks with Iran. I think the odds on an attack in 2011 or possibly 2010 are better than 50-50, assuming Iran fails to “come around.” Bolton is blowing smoke, in that he has no influence over policy. The Israeli attitude is in part an attempt to influence Iranian thinking about going for the bomb, but I think they (the Israelis) are in dead earnest about attacking if negotiations fail.
While John Bolton was ambassador to the UN – Israel bragged how “Bolton was Israel’s ambassador to the UN” because he represented Israel’s interests and NOT the interests of the US. The “American Enterprise Institute” is a Zionist NeoCon organizatiuon which is a TRAITOR to the US – it represents the interests of Israel. The greatest threat to peace in the world is ISRAEL. Sadly, ever since the death of JFK (some speculate that it was the Israeli Mossad who murdered Kennedy) Israel has had total cvontrol over our US Congress and over our foreign affairs to their benefit and to the detriment of the US. John Bolton should be locked up in some looney bin – he is insane – he is also a TRAITOR to the US. Instead of threatening Iran with nuclear war – perhaps we should heed the advice of the ancients: “History teaches us – we are not learning – that commerce leads top peaceful relations between people”. When is the last century that Iran attacked a country? When is the last month that Israel attacked a country? As a member of Congress stated years ago: “Before Israel became our friend – we had no enemies in the Middle East”. Israel is NOT our ‘friend’ and is NOT our ‘ally’ – and John Bolton is insane!
“a theological regime in Tehran which yearns for life in the hereafter more than life on earth…” — Bolton
Doesn’t the USA have a large number of people eager for the Rapture, Armeggedon, the Second Coming of Jesus?