by James M. Dorsey
A United Arab Emirates decision to withdraw the bulk of its forces from Yemen shines a spotlight on hard realities underlying Middle Eastern geopolitics.
The pullback suggests that the UAE is preparing for the possibility of a US military confrontation with Iran in which the UAE and Saudi Arabia could emerge as prime battlegrounds.
It also reflects long-standing subtle differences in the approaches of Saudi Arabia and the UAE towards Yemen.
It further highlights the UAE’s long-standing concern for its international standing amid mounting criticism of the civilian toll of the war as well as a recognition that the Trump administration’s unquestioning support may not be enough to shield its allies from significant reputational damage.
The withdrawal constitutes a finetuning rather than a reversal of the UAE’s determination to contain Iran and thwart political Islam witness the Emirates’ involvement in the Libyan civil war and support for renegade field marshal Khalifa Belqasim Haftar as well as its support for the embattled Sudanese military and autocrats like Egyptian general-turned-president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
While the UAE may have withdrawn the bulk of its troops from key regions of Yemen, it leaves behind Emirati-trained local forces that will continue to do its bidding. The withdrawal, moreover, is not 100 percent with the UAE maintaining its Al-Mukalla base for counterterrorism operations.
The UAE’s commitment to assertive policies designed to ensure that the small state can continue to punch above its weight are also evident in its maintenance of a string of military and commercial port facilities in Yemen, on the African shore of the Red Sea, and in the Horn of Africa as well its hard-line towards Qatar and rivalry with Turkey.
As part of its regional and international projection, the UAE is keen to maintain its status as a model for Arab youth and preferred country of residence.
The UAE’s image contrasts starkly with that of Saudi Arabia, the custodian of Mecca and Medina, Islam’s two holiest cities.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s policies, including the clampdown on domestic critics and the Yemen war, have prompted embarrassing calls by prominent Islamic scholars for a boycott of the pilgrimage to Mecca, one of the five pillars of Islam.
Wittingly or unwittingly, the withdrawal leaves Saudi Arabia and Prince Mohammed, the instigator of the more than four-year long war that has sparked one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, exposed.
Nonetheless, despite differing objectives in Yemen, the UAE too suffered from the reputational fallout of bombings of civilian targets that were largely carried out by the Saudi rather than the Emirati air force.
Operating primarily in the north, Saudi Arabia focussed on countering Iranian-backed Houthi rebels whose stronghold borders on the kingdom while the UAE backed South Yemeni separatists and targeted Muslim-Brotherhood related groups.
With the withdrawal, the UAE may allow differences with Saudi Arabia to become more visible but will not put its alliance with the kingdom at risk.
If past differences are anything to go by, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are able to manage them.
The differences were evident in recent weeks with the UAE, unlike Saudi Arabia, refraining from blaming Iran for attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Oman.
Leaked emails written by Yousef al-Otaiba, the UAE’s influential ambassador in Washington, laid bare the Emirates’ strategy of working through the Saudi court to achieve its regional objectives despite viewing the kingdom as “coo coo.”
Similarly, differences in the two countries’ concept of Islam failed to rock their alliance despite the effective excommunication in 2016 of Saudi-backed ultra-conservatism at a UAE-sponsored conference in the Chechen capital of Grozny.
The alliance is key to the two countries’ counterrevolution aimed at maintaining the region’s autocratic status quo in the face of almost a decade of popular revolts, public protests and civil wars.
The UAE-Saudi-led counterrevolution is driven by Prince Mohammed and his UAE counterpart, crown prince Mohammed bin Zayed’s desire to shape the Middle East in their mould.
The UAE rather than the kingdom was the driver behind the Qatar boycott with Saudi King Mohammed and Prince Mohammed initially reaching out to the Qatar-backed Muslim Brotherhood when they came to power in 2015.
Four years later Saudi Arabia, is unlikely to radically shift gears but could prove less intransigent towards the group than the UAE.
While preparing for possible conflict with Iran may be the main driver for the withdrawal, it is unlikely to protect the UAE from damage to its reputation as a result of its involvement in Libya and Sudan as well as its draconic clampdown on dissent at home.
Haftar’s UAE-armed forces are believed to be responsible for this week’s bombing of a detention center for African migrants in the Libyan capital Tripoli that killed 40 people and wounded 80 others.
The bombing came of the heels of a discovery of US-made missiles on one of Haftar’s military bases packed in shipping containers stating they belonged to the “UAE Armed Forces.” The UAE has denied ownership.
The UAE’s withdrawal from Yemen will likely help it evade calls for Yemen-related arms embargoes.
Libya, however, could prove to be the UAE’s Achilles heel.
Said Robert Menendez, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in a letter to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo: “You are surely aware that if these allegations prove true you may be obligated by law to terminate all arms sales to the UAE.”
Reprinted, with permission, from The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer blog.
The UAE has a relatively small population, about 9 million same as New Jersey, and 88% of them are immigrants. The country now has to draft soldiers, with the service time recently extended from a year to 18 months, so they are all green. Foreign officers, retired military from the US and other western countries, are employed as officers/consultants.
Meanwhile the UAE is expanding its ambitions with its mercenary army. It has built a base in Eritrea and is planning to establish a base in Somaliland, and talks about using military action against Qatar. And yes the US-Iran potential for conflict is real, with a potential to expand. So the UAE is experiencing overstretch with limited means. . .Sort of like the US on a smaller scale.
The UAE has a relatively small population, about 9 million same as New Jersey, and 88% of them are immigrants. The country now has to draft soldiers, with the service time recently extended from a year to 18 months, so they are all green. Foreign officers, retired military from the US and other western countries, are employed as officers/consultants.
Meanwhile the UAE is expanding its ambitions with its mercenary army. It has built a base in Eritrea and is planning to establish a base in Somaliland, and talks about using military action against Qatar. And yes the US-Iran potential for conflict is real, with a potential to expand. So the UAE is experiencing overstretch with limited means.
UAE is much more volunerable to war side-effects compared to SA so the possibility of thinking to a new one with Iran is unreasonable.
Mr Dorsey, hate to tell you but your assessment is inaccurate. Th Huthies are getting the upper hand in this devastating atrocity imposed on Yemen by SA, UAE and their supporters. The aggressors are getting desperate and have to exit before it gets worse for them. Either of these Sheikdoms are NOT a match for Iran. Nice try anyways!
UAE & Saudi started the war in Yemen with the aim to liberate from Houthis however their mission has been exposed day by day and indulged in a criminal activities and play a game and didn’t allow the Yemen troops to advance against Houthis. This is in fear of Yemen becoming peaceful country and they don’t want that. Both Emirates and Saudi had plane to divided Yemen but they learned from the People that it is impossible regardless of some factors. The coward Emirate soldiers undermine the Yemen people and they should learn from history that Yemen has defeated British soldiers in Aden. If they are not leaving Yemen peacefully they will have consequences because the people are united against both of them. They play a game by pretending to be feeding the starved people and send many aids however they didn’t allow the Hadi troops to advance against Houthis. It has been exposed that both Emirate and Saudi don’t have good ambition for Yemen and finally they will be ashamed of what they are doing. for the last 5 years most of the target are innocent people and they will be asked for that. Both of them have become the cancer of Middle east and everything will come on their neck. It is a matter of time they will pay the price for what they did to Yemen and prolong the war on purpose. The Yemen men are strong and shame on them “They are already defeated by Houthis”. Here when I say this I am not supporting Houthis but I feel proud the are Yemenis and creted fear amongst the coward Saudis. Yemenis know how to fight and 1 Yemen=50 Saudi and 1 Yemeni = 75 Emirates. Saudi and Emirates don’t know how to fight but any Yemenis know that much better than any fighter in the world and they had miscalculated this . Now the solution is Saudi has to leave and Emirates does and the Hadi troops should agree with Houthis and build Yemen.
Wow for those Emirates and Saudis try to play against Yemen.