by Shireen T. Hunter
Not long after the outbreak of the crisis over Ukraine and Crimea, many observers began asking the following question: what impact could renewed Russo-Western tensions have on the fate of the ongoing negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program? Will the Russians encourage Iran to become more obdurate and change its current and more flexible approach to negotiations with the P5+1 countries (the US, Britain, France, China, and Russia plus Germany), stop complying with sanctions on Iran, or even help it financially and militarily, for example by delivering the promised-but-withheld S-300 air defense system or even shipping the more advanced S-400?
Other questions are also important. Notably, what impact has the West’s treatment of Iran had on Russia’s ability to pressure Ukraine and in general to regain its influence in independent states of the former Soviet Union, including the Caucasus and Central Asia? Indeed, the Western policy of containing Iran and excluding it from many regional and transnational energy and other schemes has facilitated Russia’s policy of consolidating its position in the former USSR.
A major tool that Russia has used in its quest to regain influence over its former possessions has been its vast oil and gas reserves. This is quite evident in Ukraine’s case, where Russia has switched the gas spigot on and off as a way of pressuring Kiev. Iran is only second to Russia in its gas reserves and could have been an alternative to Russia in many countries of the former USSR, including Ukraine. Yet the Western policy of preventing any foreign investment in Iran’s energy sector, coupled with preventing any transfer of Iran’s oil and gas to Europe via various pipeline routes, has meant that Russia has gained an excessive share of the European energy market. Iranian gas could have easily been transported to Europe, especially the East European countries, through Turkey, Bulgaria and so on. Even Ukraine could have satisfied some of its energy needs through Iranian gas.
The same has been true in the Caucasus. Both Georgia and Armenia have wanted more energy cooperation with Iran. However, they were discouraged by the West and, in the case of Armenia, also pressured by Russia. The result has been their greater vulnerability to Russian pressure.
Meanwhile, preventing any of the Central Asian energy sources to pass through Iran, the only country with common land and sea borders with these countries (with the exception of Uzbekistan, which is a land-locked country), has made it more difficult for countries like Georgia to get, for instance, Turkmen gas. In other areas, too, excluding Iran from regional energy schemes, and discouraging Central Asian and Caucasian countries from cooperating with Iran, has worked either in Russia’s favor or created opportunities for China.
Even in the areas of security and conflict-resolution, Iran’s exclusion and the West’s encouraging regional countries to adopt anti-Iran policies has had negative effects. This has even given rise to new tensions and problems, for instance, between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan, as well as exacerbated sectarian tensions. For example, Azerbaijan’s resulting animosity to Iran has led it periodically to favor Sunni radical Islamists. Consequently, today Azerbaijan has a serious Salafi problem, and sectarian tensions in the country have been on the rise.
The experience described above provides important lessons for Western policy towards Iran and regional issues in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and South Asia. The first lesson is that a policy of containment on several fronts is not practicable, at least not in the long run. For twenty years, the US has tried to contain both Russia and Iran in these regions and to bar Iran’s interaction with these regions, while also looking askance at China’s progress.
A second lesson is that excluding Iranian oil and gas from global markets inevitably limited Europe’s and Central Asia’s energy choices, making both more vulnerable to Russian pressures since, with the exception of Qatar, the Persian Gulf oil giants are not major players in the gas market.
The last and the most important lesson is that the West should press forward with negotiations with Iran, toward a satisfactory conclusion to the nuclear dispute. This should be followed by lifting sanctions, encouraging the return of Western energy companies to Iran, and planning new networks of energy transport which would include Iran. In the long run, this kind of engagement would also translate into better political relations between Iran and the West and produce a positive impact on Iran’s political evolution and hence issues of human rights and other freedoms in Iran.
With regard to broader regional security issues, the West should work with Iran on a case-by-case basis wherever this serves Western interests, rather than making all aspects of relations with Iran hostage to its stand on the Palestinian question. As shown by the example of Afghanistan — where Iran supported US interests in toppling the Taliban, only to be deemed part of an Axis of Evil — isolating and excluding Iran harms the West as much if not more than it does the Islamic Republic. Right now, the only real winner is Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
A sobering view here, which then brings to the table, is the west listening beyond the Neocons/Israel? Restarting the “Cold War” is an insane objective for world peace, as well as prosperity, especially in the E.U. After all, the loud mouths live in the U.S., away from the troubles they brew in their dreams/demands, which could lead to destruction not thought of in their ivory towers, perhaps even in the U.S. Of course, “O” will be blamed because he allowed the inmates out of the asylum to do their thing.
Iran obviously is both the source of needed gas, for the EU, Pakistan and India, and a place for transit of gas to the EU from Central Asia. The sanctions against Iran obviously have helped strengthen Russia’s position in oil and gas markets of the EU.
According to US Energy Information Administration, Iran has 1,187 trillion cubic feet (33.6 trillion cubic metres) of gas reserves (equal to over 220 billion barrels of oil). The latest BP figures put Iran’s gas deposits ahead of those of Russia, and at 154 billion barrels of oil, Iran has the second largest oil deposits in the world, excluding shale oil reserves.
Ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union Iran could have provided the most direct and the cheapest route for the transfer of oil and gas from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to the West, but the neocons in various US Administrations prevented Iran from playing any role in oil and gas transfers, even at the cost of building a much more expensive Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Most of Iran’s oil and gas consumption is in the populated north of the country and Iran agreed to buy oil and gas from Azerbaijan and Central Asia and provide the equivalent amount to the buyers in the Persian Gulf. The West has also blocked an Iranian gas pipeline to Pakistan and India.
That shortsighted policy has given Russia a virtual oil and gas monopoly in Europe and has consolidated her position in Central Asia, while alienating Iran from the West. Relaxing the restrictions on Iran will lessen European dependence on Russian oil and gas, and will reintegrate Iran into the international community, thus encouraging her to adopt more moderate regional and international policies. It is essential to reach a final nuclear agreement with Iran, and to start investing in Iran’s vast energy resources and winning a lucrative market of over 80 million people.
With so much downside on Iran I’m beginning to think Putin should have “invaded” Iran instead of Crimea.
Looking inside the Iranian community, one may see the incredible rapid westernisation of the way of life in all directions.
Being outside the country for many decades, I was stunned to discover the following issues:
1-Many mega malls are emerging in all corners, showing all European fashions . Same phenomenon is seen on major roads in Tehran,the multi-million urban conglomeration.French Carrefout is imitated as a cultural transplant.
2-A great number of Iranian University graduates, millions, deeply rooted in scientific rationality, believe in the Western Ideals and could be considered as a major asset for US and Europe as guaranteeing Iran peaceful reintegration into global trading structures.
3-Iran has unbelievable energy reserves in oil and gas, so much needed for any forcastable future.
4-Eighty Million Iranian consuming community is a fantastic marketplace for Industrialized World.
5-Iran would prove, a valuable ally for the West , in Mid East Turbulent political set-up. Arab Sunni religious radicalism needs to be checked by a different Muslim Nation Iran.This role was played in Shah’s time as a powerful and natural ally to Israel.
6-Russia is not liked by Most Iranians for historical reason.please do not push them towards Putin.Iran’s territorial integrity and independence was saved by Western Alliance, during Cold War era, Iran feels indebted to the West for this purpose.
7-Russia poses a permanent danger to Iran’ s prospective prosperous links to the West.We don’t for get Saddam Hussein’ s Russian supplied weapons invaded Iran.West and Iran fought the same Saddam together.
Iran has always had a lot in common with the West in the past and will prove to be a reliable ally in the future. Let’s build the future together.
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