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Published on January 1st, 2014 | by Jim Lobe

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Why New Sanctions on Iran Now are Counterproductive

by Jim Lobe

With respect to the upcoming debate over the Kirk-Menendez bill, Colin Kahl, who served as the top Middle East policy official at the Defence Department for most of President Obama’s first term, has offered the best argument to date as to why it’s a particularly bad idea. Hopefully the current co-sponsors of the bill will take the time to read it:

The Geneva “interim” agreement reached in November between Iran and the so-called P5+1 (the United States, Britain, China, France, Germany, and Russia) freezes Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for modest sanctions relief, with the goal of enabling further talks to comprehensively resolve one of the world’s thorniest challenges. Yet despite the landmark accord, more than two dozen Senators introduced legislation on December 19 [3] to impose new oil and financial sanctions on Iran. The Senate could vote on the measure soon after it returns from recess in January. Powerful lobby organizations are mobilized in support of the bill, and it could certainly pass.

The legislation defies a request by the Obama administration and ten Senate committee chairs to stand down on sanctions while negotiations continue. It also flies in the face of an unclassified intelligence assessment [4]that new sanctions “would undermine the prospects for a successful comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran.” Proponents of the bill note that the proposed sanctions would only come into force if Iran violates the Geneva agreement or fails to move toward a final deal, and would not kick in for months. But the White House warns that enshrining new economic threats in law now runs counter to the spirit of the Geneva pledge of no new sanctions during negotiations, and risks empowering Iranian forces hoping to scuttle nuclear talks. The legislation also defines congressionally acceptable parameters for a final deal that Iran experts almost universally believe are [5]unachievable [5], namely the requirement that Iran completely dismantle its uranium enrichment program. For these reasons, the administration [6]believes [6] the bill represents a poison pill that could kill diplomacy, making a nuclear-armed Iran or war more likely.

Sanctions hawks disagree, arguing that the legislation will enable, not thwart, diplomatic progress. “Current sanctions brought Iran to the negotiating table,” Senator Robert Menendez, the bill’s leading champion, contends, “and a credible threat of future sanctions will require Iran to cooperate and act in good faith at the negotiating table.”

But this logic badly misreads the historical effect of sanctions on Iranian behavior and under-appreciates the role played by Iran’s fractious domestic politics. A careful look at Iranian actions over the past decade suggests that economic pressure has sometimes been effective, but only when it aligns with particular Iranian political dynamics and policy preferences. And once domestic Iranian politics are factored in, the lesson for today’s sanctions debate is clear: the threat of additional sanctions, at this critical juncture, could derail negotiations toward a peaceful solution.

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About the Author

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Jim Lobe served for some 30 years as the Washington DC bureau chief for Inter Press Service and is best known for his coverage of U.S. foreign policy and the influence of the neoconservative movement.



3 Responses to Why New Sanctions on Iran Now are Counterproductive

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  1. avatar James Canning says:

    I assume some of the foolish or reckless American politicians pushing this measure do in fact want to block a deal with Iran.

  2. avatar Ali Mostofi says:

    Mr Lobe

    Please refrain from saying Iran, when you are referring to the people Iranians refer to as Hezbollahis.

    The Hezbollahis have attacked the very culture of Iran. It is imperative that they do not be portrayed as Iranians.

    Dealing with Hezbollahis is akin to dealing with the Taliban. Nobody minds stern actions on Hezbollahis. Iranians need help in that regard.

  3. avatar Norman says:

    On story, it doesn’t look good. After all, look at how Congress has conducted its duties to the citizens if the U.S. since Bush Jr. took office, continuing into the “O” regime.

    Mr Ali adding a new name to the process, well, something new every day I suppose.

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